The President of the United Stated spoke about the war to come in Iraq. He gave Saddam and his sons 48 hours to leave Iraq. Now, he didn't spell out exactly what would happen if they left, I got the distinct impression that we would still proceed into Iraq as planned, but hopefully as invited guests.
Bush did an amirable job spelling out his reasons for war. While I don't think he was entirely truthful, the speech basically laid out th following premise. Iraq signed a peace treaty based on disarmament twelve years ago. They have not disarmed. The crises of the middle east may threaten the U.S. as evidenced by September 11. Therefore, we must go to war to stop the threat in Iraq now, pre-emptively.
On another note, is there anyone who thinks Bush look comfortable giving a speech. I always get the impression he borrowed the jacket and he is giving the speech because he want to get the grade, but would rather be back at the frat house. The speech last night was great for Bush, but still seems stilted and strained.
I have my concerns of course.
I still think that perhaps we are going to war for one of the following reasons.
- We have wanted to take out Saddam for some time and September 11th has given the government enough support to do it now.
- We actually have intellegence that indicates that Iraq is a legitimate threat. (I tend to discount this as there have been no revelations so far, someone would have leaked it by now.)
- We see the potential of instability in Saudi Arabia, and want to have a friendly regime in the area, should the Saudi's be subject to regime change. (This would be U.S. foreign policy taking a long view 20+ years, which would seem an abberation)
Some people particularily in the war protest movement see this war as solely about oil. In a sense they are right. If there were no oil in the middle east, it would have the same mindshare as Africa. Our dependence on oil make the stability of the region on vital national interest.(Of course, if you take this position, you must also concede that French intrasigence is likely due to their existing oil contracts with Iraq.) To say that we are going to war so Amoco or Haliburton can make more money seems to fail Occams Razor. It's just not the simplest answer. However, I would love to live in a world powered by cheap hydrogen. It would pull the financial rug out from a number of middle east thug run governments.
I hope the this war will be over soon. In fact the best scenario to my mind is a coup. If Saddam were deposed an individual or group could take over, invite the U.S. in to prop up their regime, and seriously profit both on dollars and power. It's a win-win situation unless you are Saddam or one of his sons.
Nightmares
I do have the occasional fear about Iraq. Here are some of the scenarios that keep me up at night.
Iraq launches weapons at Israel laced with chemical or dirty nuke payloads, provoking a decisive response from Israel. This type of response could cause us to loose support among Iraq's neighbors and in the worst case cause the conflict to widen.
Iraq uses weapons of mass desctruction against American troops. In the traditional war scenario we escalate our response. What would we do, nuke Tikrit and wipe it off the planet? That again could cause the war to widen. It would certainly shake up the world. Our allies would have a difficult time sticking with us.
Iraq attacks it's own citizens, pretending to be the U.S. and shows video on Al-Jazeera. This would inflame Arab sentiment against us. It could set off serious protests and further threaten security in the middle east.
A prolonged standoff around Baghdad results in enourmous loss of Iraqi civilian life and U.S. military. It becomes another Vietnam. (I doubt this as there is no evidence that Saddam's power is popular as seems to have been the case in Vietnam.)
Where are we going to stop. Once we defeat Iraq and install some sort of government we like, who's next. I think if we are successful we may be tempted to keep going to North Korea, or Iran. I am not convinced that this will make for a safer world. In fact, I think it will inflame the world.
Black Hawk Down all over again. If you read the book or saw the movie, imagine that nightmare repeated a few times in a month. All it takes is one mechanical failure to set in motion a disaster like that.
We'll see how it plays out over the next few weeks.
